Uruguay at the 2026 World Cup: Forecast & Predictions

Tournament Outcome

Uruguay wins the World Cup in 0.8% of simulations

Based on 10,000 independent simulations of the entire 2026 tournament — group stage, knockouts, extra time, penalties.

0.8%

Win tournament

2.8%

Reach final

6.7%

Reach semi

15.1%

Reach quarter

Path Through The Tournament

Probability of reaching each stage of the tournament. Numbers cumulate — the 100% baseline is "starts the tournament".

Round of 32

72.2%

Round of 16

30.8%

Quarter-finals

15.1%

Semi-finals

6.7%

Final

2.8%

World Cup Champions

0.8%

Goals

1.58

Goals scored / match

1.59

Goals conceded / match

4.3

Matches played (avg)

Group H

The other three teams sharing Group H. Click for their full forecasts.

Spain

R16 68%

12.9% win

Cape Verde Islands

R16 21%

0.2% win

Saudi Arabia

R16 9%

0.0% win