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Spain

Group H Elo 1,992
Tournament Outcome

Spain wins the World Cup in 12.9% of simulations

Based on 10,000 independent simulations of the entire 2026 tournament — group stage, knockouts, extra time, penalties.

12.9%
Win tournament
23.4%
Reach final
35.4%
Reach semi
48.9%
Reach quarter
Path Through The Tournament

How far does Spain go?

Probability of reaching each stage of the tournament. Numbers cumulate — the 100% baseline is "starts the tournament".

Round of 32
96.7%
Round of 16
68.2%
Quarter-finals
48.9%
Semi-finals
35.4%
Final
23.4%
World Cup Champions
12.9%
Goals

Average per match across all simulations

2.31
Goals scored / match
1.09
Goals conceded / match
5.9
Matches played (avg)
Group H

Spain's opponents

The other three teams sharing Group H. Click for their full forecasts.

Uruguay
R16 31%
0.8% win
Cape Verde Islands
R16 21%
0.2% win
Saudi Arabia
R16 9%
0.0% win