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Türkiye

Group D Elo 1,763
Tournament Outcome

Türkiye wins the World Cup in 1.3% of simulations

Based on 10,000 independent simulations of the entire 2026 tournament — group stage, knockouts, extra time, penalties.

1.3%
Win tournament
4.1%
Reach final
8.9%
Reach semi
19.2%
Reach quarter
Path Through The Tournament

How far does Türkiye go?

Probability of reaching each stage of the tournament. Numbers cumulate — the 100% baseline is "starts the tournament".

Round of 32
75.3%
Round of 16
40.5%
Quarter-finals
19.2%
Semi-finals
8.9%
Final
4.1%
World Cup Champions
1.3%
Goals

Average per match across all simulations

1.71
Goals scored / match
1.65
Goals conceded / match
4.5
Matches played (avg)
Group D

Türkiye's opponents

The other three teams sharing Group D. Click for their full forecasts.

Australia
R16 43%
1.4% win
USA
R16 32%
0.5% win
Paraguay
R16 21%
0.2% win