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Sweden

Group F Elo 1,614
Tournament Outcome

Sweden wins the World Cup in 0.1% of simulations

Based on 10,000 independent simulations of the entire 2026 tournament — group stage, knockouts, extra time, penalties.

0.1%
Win tournament
0.4%
Reach final
1.3%
Reach semi
3.7%
Reach quarter
Path Through The Tournament

How far does Sweden go?

Probability of reaching each stage of the tournament. Numbers cumulate — the 100% baseline is "starts the tournament".

Round of 32
36.5%
Round of 16
11.2%
Quarter-finals
3.7%
Semi-finals
1.3%
Final
0.4%
World Cup Champions
0.1%
Goals

Average per match across all simulations

1.57
Goals scored / match
2.72
Goals conceded / match
3.5
Matches played (avg)
Group F

Sweden's opponents

The other three teams sharing Group F. Click for their full forecasts.

Japan
R16 56%
4.9% win
Netherlands
R16 44%
1.9% win
Tunisia
R16 20%
0.2% win