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South Africa

Group A Elo 1,653
Tournament Outcome

South Africa wins the World Cup in 0.1% of simulations

Based on 10,000 independent simulations of the entire 2026 tournament — group stage, knockouts, extra time, penalties.

0.1%
Win tournament
0.4%
Reach final
1.6%
Reach semi
5.6%
Reach quarter
Path Through The Tournament

How far does South Africa go?

Probability of reaching each stage of the tournament. Numbers cumulate — the 100% baseline is "starts the tournament".

Round of 32
54.5%
Round of 16
20.2%
Quarter-finals
5.6%
Semi-finals
1.6%
Final
0.4%
World Cup Champions
0.1%
Goals

Average per match across all simulations

1.35
Goals scored / match
1.83
Goals conceded / match
3.8
Matches played (avg)
Group A

South Africa's opponents

The other three teams sharing Group A. Click for their full forecasts.

South Korea
R16 47%
1.0% win
Mexico
R16 46%
0.9% win
Czech Republic
R16 16%
0.0% win