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Scotland

Group C Elo 1,644
Tournament Outcome

Scotland wins the World Cup in 0.1% of simulations

Based on 10,000 independent simulations of the entire 2026 tournament — group stage, knockouts, extra time, penalties.

0.1%
Win tournament
0.5%
Reach final
1.6%
Reach semi
5.3%
Reach quarter
Path Through The Tournament

How far does Scotland go?

Probability of reaching each stage of the tournament. Numbers cumulate — the 100% baseline is "starts the tournament".

Round of 32
49.5%
Round of 16
14.9%
Quarter-finals
5.3%
Semi-finals
1.6%
Final
0.5%
World Cup Champions
0.1%
Goals

Average per match across all simulations

1.39
Goals scored / match
2.10
Goals conceded / match
3.7
Matches played (avg)
Group C

Scotland's opponents

The other three teams sharing Group C. Click for their full forecasts.

Morocco
R16 56%
5.0% win
Brazil
R16 44%
1.8% win
Haiti
R16 7%
0.0% win