Norway at the 2026 World Cup: Forecast & Predictions

Tournament Outcome

Norway wins the World Cup in 1.1% of simulations

Based on 10,000 independent simulations of the entire 2026 tournament — group stage, knockouts, extra time, penalties.

1.1%

Win tournament

3.9%

Reach final

8.2%

Reach semi

17.2%

Reach quarter

Path Through The Tournament

Probability of reaching each stage of the tournament. Numbers cumulate — the 100% baseline is "starts the tournament".

Round of 32

67.0%

Round of 16

35.2%

Quarter-finals

17.2%

Semi-finals

8.2%

Final

3.9%

World Cup Champions

1.1%

Goals

1.74

Goals scored / match

1.57

Goals conceded / match

4.4

Matches played (avg)

Group I

The other three teams sharing Group I. Click for their full forecasts.

France

R16 66%

10.1% win

Senegal

R16 38%

1.7% win

Iraq

R16 18%

0.3% win