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Mexico

Group A Host nation Elo 1,757
Tournament Outcome

Mexico wins the World Cup in 0.9% of simulations

Based on 10,000 independent simulations of the entire 2026 tournament — group stage, knockouts, extra time, penalties.

0.9%
Win tournament
3.4%
Reach final
8.7%
Reach semi
20.2%
Reach quarter
Path Through The Tournament

How far does Mexico go?

Probability of reaching each stage of the tournament. Numbers cumulate — the 100% baseline is "starts the tournament".

Round of 32
83.0%
Round of 16
45.8%
Quarter-finals
20.2%
Semi-finals
8.7%
Final
3.4%
World Cup Champions
0.9%
Goals

Average per match across all simulations

1.55
Goals scored / match
1.43
Goals conceded / match
4.7
Matches played (avg)
Group A

Mexico's opponents

The other three teams sharing Group A. Click for their full forecasts.

South Korea
R16 47%
1.0% win
South Africa
R16 20%
0.1% win
Czech Republic
R16 16%
0.0% win