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France

Group I Elo 1,948
Tournament Outcome

France wins the World Cup in 10.1% of simulations

Based on 10,000 independent simulations of the entire 2026 tournament — group stage, knockouts, extra time, penalties.

10.1%
Win tournament
19.5%
Reach final
30.2%
Reach semi
45.3%
Reach quarter
Path Through The Tournament

How far does France go?

Probability of reaching each stage of the tournament. Numbers cumulate — the 100% baseline is "starts the tournament".

Round of 32
90.9%
Round of 16
66.4%
Quarter-finals
45.3%
Semi-finals
30.2%
Final
19.5%
World Cup Champions
10.1%
Goals

Average per match across all simulations

1.95
Goals scored / match
1.19
Goals conceded / match
5.6
Matches played (avg)
Group I

France's opponents

The other three teams sharing Group I. Click for their full forecasts.

Senegal
R16 38%
1.7% win
Norway
R16 35%
1.1% win
Iraq
R16 18%
0.3% win