England at the 2026 World Cup: Forecast & Predictions

Tournament Outcome

England wins the World Cup in 3.6% of simulations

Based on 10,000 independent simulations of the entire 2026 tournament — group stage, knockouts, extra time, penalties.

3.6%

Win tournament

9.3%

Reach final

17.1%

Reach semi

31.3%

Reach quarter

Path Through The Tournament

Probability of reaching each stage of the tournament. Numbers cumulate — the 100% baseline is "starts the tournament".

Round of 32

89.8%

Round of 16

54.0%

Quarter-finals

31.3%

Semi-finals

17.1%

Final

9.3%

World Cup Champions

3.6%

Goals

2.06

Goals scored / match

1.37

Goals conceded / match

5.1

Matches played (avg)

Group L

The other three teams sharing Group L. Click for their full forecasts.

Croatia

R16 43%

1.6% win

Panama

R16 23%

0.3% win

Ghana

R16 12%

0.0% win