Ecuador at the 2026 World Cup: Forecast & Predictions

Tournament Outcome

Ecuador wins the World Cup in 1.2% of simulations

Based on 10,000 independent simulations of the entire 2026 tournament — group stage, knockouts, extra time, penalties.

1.2%

Win tournament

3.7%

Reach final

8.4%

Reach semi

17.8%

Reach quarter

Path Through The Tournament

Probability of reaching each stage of the tournament. Numbers cumulate — the 100% baseline is "starts the tournament".

Round of 32

73.9%

Round of 16

38.3%

Quarter-finals

17.8%

Semi-finals

8.4%

Final

3.7%

World Cup Champions

1.2%

Goals

1.41

Goals scored / match

1.49

Goals conceded / match

4.5

Matches played (avg)

Group E

The other three teams sharing Group E. Click for their full forecasts.

Germany

R16 50%

2.5% win

Ivory Coast

R16 44%

1.6% win

Curaçao

R16 12%

0.0% win