Belgium at the 2026 World Cup: Forecast & Predictions

Tournament Outcome

Belgium wins the World Cup in 1.1% of simulations

Based on 10,000 independent simulations of the entire 2026 tournament — group stage, knockouts, extra time, penalties.

1.1%

Win tournament

3.3%

Reach final

7.6%

Reach semi

18.5%

Reach quarter

Path Through The Tournament

Probability of reaching each stage of the tournament. Numbers cumulate — the 100% baseline is "starts the tournament".

Round of 32

75.3%

Round of 16

39.3%

Quarter-finals

18.5%

Semi-finals

7.6%

Final

3.3%

World Cup Champions

1.1%

Goals

1.92

Goals scored / match

1.54

Goals conceded / match

4.5

Matches played (avg)

Group G

The other three teams sharing Group G. Click for their full forecasts.

Iran

R16 41%

1.2% win

Egypt

R16 43%

1.4% win

New Zealand

R16 16%

0.1% win