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Australia

Group D Elo 1,798
Tournament Outcome

Australia wins the World Cup in 1.4% of simulations

Based on 10,000 independent simulations of the entire 2026 tournament — group stage, knockouts, extra time, penalties.

1.4%
Win tournament
4.6%
Reach final
9.8%
Reach semi
21.7%
Reach quarter
Path Through The Tournament

How far does Australia go?

Probability of reaching each stage of the tournament. Numbers cumulate — the 100% baseline is "starts the tournament".

Round of 32
78.2%
Round of 16
43.3%
Quarter-finals
21.7%
Semi-finals
9.8%
Final
4.6%
World Cup Champions
1.4%
Goals

Average per match across all simulations

1.84
Goals scored / match
1.53
Goals conceded / match
4.6
Matches played (avg)
Group D

Australia's opponents

The other three teams sharing Group D. Click for their full forecasts.

Türkiye
R16 41%
1.3% win
USA
R16 32%
0.5% win
Paraguay
R16 21%
0.2% win