Predicted Group Standings

How the 12 groups finish

Across 10,000 simulations, this is the most likely finishing order for each group. The top two from every group advance directly; the best eight third-placed teams also qualify for the Round of 32.

Group A
  1. 1st South Korea Advances
  2. 2nd Mexico Advances
  3. 3rd South Africa Best-third contender
  4. 4th Czech Republic Eliminated
Group B
  1. 1st Switzerland Advances
  2. 2nd Canada Advances
  3. 3rd Qatar Best-third contender
  4. 4th Bosnia & Herzegovina Eliminated
Group C
  1. 1st Morocco Advances
  2. 2nd Brazil Advances
  3. 3rd Scotland Best-third contender
  4. 4th Haiti Eliminated
Group D
  1. 1st Australia Advances
  2. 2nd Türkiye Advances
  3. 3rd Paraguay Best-third contender
  4. 4th USA Eliminated
Group E
  1. 1st Germany Advances
  2. 2nd Ivory Coast Advances
  3. 3rd Ecuador Best-third contender
  4. 4th Curaçao Eliminated
Group F
  1. 1st Japan Advances
  2. 2nd Netherlands Advances
  3. 3rd Tunisia Best-third contender
  4. 4th Sweden Eliminated
Group G
  1. 1st Egypt Advances
  2. 2nd Iran Advances
  3. 3rd New Zealand Best-third contender
  4. 4th Belgium Eliminated
Group H
  1. 1st Spain Advances
  2. 2nd Uruguay Advances
  3. 3rd Cape Verde Islands Best-third contender
  4. 4th Saudi Arabia Eliminated
Group I
  1. 1st France Advances
  2. 2nd Senegal Advances
  3. 3rd Iraq Best-third contender
  4. 4th Norway Eliminated
Group J
  1. 1st Argentina Advances
  2. 2nd Algeria Advances
  3. 3rd Austria Best-third contender
  4. 4th Jordan Eliminated
Group K
  1. 1st Portugal Advances
  2. 2nd Colombia Advances
  3. 3rd Uzbekistan Best-third contender
  4. 4th Congo DR Eliminated
Group L
  1. 1st England Advances
  2. 2nd Croatia Advances
  3. 3rd Panama Best-third contender
  4. 4th Ghana Eliminated

These standings drive the consensus bracket on the homepage. The third-placed teams shown here are the most likely to finish 3rd in their group; only the best 8 of the 12 will actually qualify for the knockout round under FIFA's rules.